Context: Quoting @natolambert: "I spent some time trying to distill all the complex factors impacting open models -- economics, capabilities, distribution, policy, etc. -- into a clear list of beliefs. Here they are in full. 1. It’s surprising that the top closed models did not show a growing capability margin" Tweet: It’s not like anyone needs me to tell them that Nathan Lambert is one of the very best in the field of “writing smart things about AI,” but Nathan Lambert is one of the very best in the field of “writing smart things about AI.” @natolambert: "I spent some time trying to distill all the complex factors impacting open models -- economics, capabilities, distribution, policy, etc. -- into a clear list of beliefs. Here they are in full. 1. It’s surprising that the top closed models did not show a growing capability margin over open models, based on compute differences for training and research, especially in the second half of 2025 and through today."